SEPTEMBER 2007 KEY POINTS
Trend
The September 2007 trend estimate for new motor vehicle sales (87 309) increased 0.2% when compared with the August 2007 estimate. The trend estimate has now been increasing for over 15 consecutive months. When compared to August 2006, the trend estimate increased by 8.0%.
Sports utility vehicles increased 1.4% and other vehicles increased by 0.7% when comparing September 2007 to August 2007. Trend estimates for sports utility vehicles have increased each month for the last 15 months, and other vehicles for the last 12 months. Passenger vehicles, however, have been decreasing for six consecutive months and fell by 0.4% when comparing September 2007 to August 2007.
All vehicle types have recorded increases when compared to the same period 12 months ago. Sports utility vehicles, other vehicles and passenger vehicles rose 18.4%, 12.5% and 3.7%, respectively.
When comparing September 2007 to August 2007, four states and territories showed increases in the trend estimate of total sales of new motor vehicles. Trend estimates in Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania each increased by 0.9%, and the ACT increased by 0.3%. The largest decreases were in South Australia and Queensland, both of which fell by 0.4%.
Seasonally adjusted
The September 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate for total sales of new motor vehicles (87 750) increased by 1.8% compared with August 2007. All vehicle types showed increases, with other vehicles, sports utility vehicles and passenger vehicles increasing by 3.6%, 2.2% and 1.0% respectively.
When comparing September 2007 to August 2007, five states and territories showed increases in total sales. The largest increase was in Tasmania with an increase of 13.3%, followed by Queensland (4.9%). Total sales decreased in the Northern Territory, South Australia and New South Wales, falling 1.6%, 0.9% and 0.2%, respectively.
New motor vehicles sales September 2007
| NSW | Vic. | Qld | SA | WA | Tas.(a) | NT(a) | ACT(a) | Aust. |
Vehicle sales
|
| | | | | | | | | |
Seasonally adjusted | 26 302 | 22 765 | 19 335 | 4 992 | 10 444 | 1 673 | 814 | 1 425 | 87 750 |
Trend | 26 448 | 22 555 | 19 027 | 5 017 | 10 425 | 1 624 | 813 | 1 400 | 87 309 |
Percentage change from previous month
|
| | | | | | | | | |
Seasonally adjusted | -0.2 | 1.9 | 4.9 | -0.9 | 0.9 | 13.3 | -1.6 | 3.0 | 1.8 |
Trend | -0.1 | 0.9 | -0.4 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Percentage change from previous year
|
| | | | | | | | | |
Seasonally adjusted | 5.8 | 10.2 | 9.9 | -0.8 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 15.4 | 7.8 |
Trend | 7.6 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 1.1 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 15.4 | 8.0 |
|
(a) Seasonally adjusted numbers of new motor vehicle sales in Tasmania, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory should be used with caution. For further information, see paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes.
NOTES
FORTHCOMING ISSUES
ISSUE | RELEASE DATE | |
| | |
October 2007 | 21 November 2007 | |
November 2007 | 21 December 2007 | |
December 2007 | 22 January 2008 | |
January 2008 | 21 February 2008 | |
February 2008 | 20 March 2008 | |
March 2008 | 21 April 2008 | |
| | |
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES
The "what-if" analysis is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimate based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These estimates should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 11 and 12.
The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the published trend estimates.
1 | The October 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the September 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.4%. |
2 | The October 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the September 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.4%. |
The percentage change of 3.4% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 3.4%.
SUMMARY - TREND AND SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES.
Table 1: New motor vehicle sales by type of vehicle
|
| | Passenger vehicles (No.) | Sports utility vehicles (No.) | Other vehicles (No.) | Total vehicles (No.) | Change passenger vehicles
(%) | Change sports utility vehicles (%) | Change other vehicles (%) | Change total vehicles (%) |
|
Original |
|
2006 | July | 48 798 | 13 279 | 15 485 | 77 562 | -14.4 | -26.6 | -27.4 | -19.6 |
| August | 52 030 | 13 539 | 16 092 | 81 661 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 5.3 |
| September | 51 388 | 13 208 | 15 397 | 79 993 | -1.2 | -2.4 | -4.3 | -2.0 |
| October | 50 532 | 13 921 | 15 477 | 79 930 | -1.7 | 5.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 |
| November | 51 850 | 15 193 | 16 254 | 83 297 | 2.6 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 4.2 |
| December | 48 348 | 14 258 | 14 457 | 77 063 | -6.8 | -6.2 | -11.1 | -7.5 |
| | | | | | | | | |
2007 | January | 49 189 | 14 303 | 13 444 | 76 936 | 1.7 | 0.3 | -7.0 | -0.2 |
| February | 52 628 | 14 912 | 16 200 | 83 740 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 20.5 | 8.8 |
| March | 57 757 | 17 589 | 19 046 | 94 392 | 9.7 | 18.0 | 17.6 | 12.7 |
| April | 45 109 | 14 274 | 16 231 | 75 614 | -21.9 | -18.8 | -14.8 | -19.9 |
| May | 52 727 | 16 912 | 18 958 | 88 597 | 16.9 | 18.5 | 16.8 | 17.2 |
| June | 63 768 | 18 966 | 22 363 | 105 097 | 20.9 | 12.1 | 18.0 | 18.6 |
| July | 53 589 | 15 396 | 17 306 | 86 291 | -16.0 | -18.8 | -22.6 | -17.9 |
| August | 52 748 | 17 440 | 18 018 | 88 206 | -1.6 | 13.3 | 4.1 | 2.2 |
| September | 50 197 | 15 874 | 17 418 | 83 489 | -4.8 | -9.0 | -3.3 | -5.3 |
|
Seasonally adjusted |
|
2006 | July | 50 594 | 14 227 | 16 061 | 80 882 | 5.2 | -1.6 | 1.8 | 3.3 |
| August | 50 780 | 12 944 | 16 025 | 79 749 | 0.4 | -9.0 | -0.2 | -1.4 |
| September | 51 202 | 14 377 | 15 852 | 81 431 | 0.8 | 11.1 | -1.1 | 2.1 |
| October | 50 513 | 15 046 | 16 295 | 81 854 | -1.3 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 0.5 |
| November | 50 727 | 14 855 | 16 107 | 81 689 | 0.4 | -1.3 | -1.2 | -0.2 |
| December | 51 634 | 14 802 | 15 596 | 82 032 | 1.8 | -0.4 | -3.2 | 0.4 |
| | | | | | | | | |
2007 | January | 54 287 | 15 385 | 16 963 | 86 635 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 |
| February | 53 654 | 15 483 | 17 259 | 86 396 | -1.2 | 0.6 | 1.7 | -0.3 |
| March | 53 773 | 15 612 | 17 563 | 86 948 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| April | 51 880 | 16 455 | 17 470 | 85 805 | -3.5 | 5.4 | -0.5 | -1.3 |
| May | 52 497 | 15 697 | 17 375 | 85 569 | 1.2 | -4.6 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| June | 54 068 | 15 975 | 17 255 | 87 298 | 3.0 | 1.8 | -0.7 | 2.0 |
| July | 53 935 | 16 038 | 17 795 | 87 768 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 3.1 | 0.5 |
| August | 51 596 | 16 933 | 17 661 | 86 190 | -4.3 | 5.6 | -0.8 | -1.8 |
| September | 52 136 | 17 309 | 18 305 | 87 750 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 1.8 |
|
Trend |
|
2006 | July | 49 919 | 13 999 | 16 016 | 79 934 | 0.7 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 0.4 |
| August | 50 258 | 14 096 | 15 963 | 80 317 | 0.7 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.5 |
| September | 50 608 | 14 263 | 15 940 | 80 811 | 0.7 | 1.2 | -0.1 | 0.6 |
| October | 51 085 | 14 489 | 15 985 | 81 559 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| November | 51 693 | 14 771 | 16 136 | 82 600 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| December | 52 279 | 15 075 | 16 393 | 83 747 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| | | | | | | | | |
2007 | January | 52 760 | 15 345 | 16 704 | 84 809 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| February | 53 143 | 15 544 | 17 018 | 85 705 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| March | 53 341 | 15 685 | 17 265 | 86 291 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| April | 53 318 | 15 839 | 17 416 | 86 573 | -0.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| May | 53 151 | 15 998 | 17 497 | 86 646 | -0.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| June | 52 985 | 16 180 | 17 559 | 86 724 | -0.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| July | 52 841 | 16 407 | 17 665 | 86 913 | -0.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| August | 52 672 | 16 658 | 17 802 | 87 132 | -0.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| September | 52 485 | 16 893 | 17 931 | 87 309 | -0.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
|
|
| | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Table 2: New motor vehicle sales by state/territory of registration
|
| | NSW | Vic. | Qld | SA | WA | Tas.(a) | NT(a) | ACT(a) | Aust. |
| | (No.) | (No.) | (No.) | (No.) | (No.) | (No.) | (No.) | (No.) | (No.) |
|
Original |
|
2006 | July | 23 688 | 19 322 | 17 910 | 4 794 | 8 720 | 1 334 | 679 | 1 115 | 77 562 |
| August | 24 223 | 21 043 | 18 124 | 5 107 | 9 736 | 1 436 | 768 | 1 224 | 81 661 |
| September | 24 267 | 20 449 | 17 061 | 4 903 | 9 716 | 1 688 | 682 | 1 227 | 79 993 |
| October | 24 379 | 20 785 | 16 625 | 4 781 | 9 591 | 1 797 | 762 | 1 210 | 79 930 |
| November | 25 418 | 20 739 | 18 076 | 5 116 | 9 972 | 1 973 | 733 | 1 270 | 83 297 |
| December | 22 927 | 19 790 | 16 551 | 4 700 | 9 471 | 1 748 | 688 | 1 188 | 77 063 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
2007 | January | 24 429 | 19 000 | 16 769 | 4 620 | 8 929 | 1 285 | 651 | 1 253 | 76 936 |
| February | 25 636 | 21 510 | 18 221 | 5 138 | 9 625 | 1 463 | 771 | 1 376 | 83 740 |
| March | 29 107 | 23 408 | 21 772 | 5 588 | 10 530 | 1 533 | 978 | 1 476 | 94 392 |
| April | 23 245 | 18 833 | 16 907 | 4 616 | 8 701 | 1 214 | 883 | 1 215 | 75 614 |
| May | 26 649 | 22 151 | 20 428 | 5 237 | 10 172 | 1 587 | 973 | 1 400 | 88 597 |
| June | 31 965 | 25 491 | 24 997 | 6 152 | 11 995 | 1 750 | 1 107 | 1 640 | 105 097 |
| July | 26 851 | 21 655 | 19 600 | 4 871 | 9 645 | 1 561 | 739 | 1 369 | 86 291 |
| August | 26 549 | 22 958 | 19 145 | 5 128 | 10 730 | 1 481 | 791 | 1 424 | 88 206 |
| September | 24 946 | 21 788 | 18 025 | 4 738 | 10 244 | 1 684 | 724 | 1 340 | 83 489 |
|
Seasonally adjusted |
|
2006 | July | 24 135 | 20 524 | 18 234 | 5 114 | 9 450 | 1 509 | 750 | 1 166 | 80 882 |
| August | 24 037 | 20 315 | 17 391 | 4 967 | 9 596 | 1 435 | 804 | 1 204 | 79 749 |
| September | 24 855 | 20 659 | 17 597 | 5 031 | 9 614 | 1 673 | 767 | 1 235 | 81 431 |
| October | 25 242 | 20 498 | 17 936 | 4 886 | 9 618 | 1 633 | 839 | 1 202 | 81 854 |
| November | 24 988 | 19 999 | 18 424 | 4 975 | 9 595 | 1 667 | 765 | 1 276 | 81 689 |
| December | 25 028 | 20 313 | 18 611 | 4 814 | 9 800 | 1 414 | 798 | 1 254 | 82 032 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
2007 | January | 26 718 | 21 764 | 19 071 | 5 391 | 9 950 | 1 570 | 836 | 1 335 | 86 635 |
| February | 25 945 | 22 191 | 19 092 | 5 192 | 10 036 | 1 714 | 828 | 1 398 | 86 396 |
| March | 26 594 | 21 938 | 19 561 | 5 256 | 9 786 | 1 595 | 830 | 1 388 | 86 948 |
| April | 26 280 | 21 295 | 19 225 | 5 229 | 9 974 | 1 548 | 841 | 1 413 | 85 805 |
| May | 25 937 | 21 629 | 19 343 | 4 979 | 9 950 | 1 534 | 816 | 1 381 | 85 569 |
| June | 26 799 | 22 240 | 19 276 | 5 077 | 10 102 | 1 600 | 822 | 1 382 | 87 298 |
| July | 26 714 | 22 174 | 19 466 | 5 147 | 10 337 | 1 741 | 800 | 1 389 | 87 768 |
| August | 26 350 | 22 339 | 18 432 | 5 035 | 10 348 | 1 476 | 827 | 1 383 | 86 190 |
| September | 26 302 | 22 765 | 19 335 | 4 992 | 10 444 | 1 673 | 814 | 1 425 | 87 750 |
|
Trend |
|
2006 | July | 24 101 | 20 183 | 17 641 | 5 080 | 9 400 | 1 572 | 764 | 1 193 | 79 934 |
| August | 24 305 | 20 227 | 17 714 | 5 016 | 9 504 | 1 575 | 776 | 1 200 | 80 317 |
| September | 24 583 | 20 278 | 17 827 | 4 963 | 9 584 | 1 577 | 786 | 1 213 | 80 811 |
| October | 24 914 | 20 405 | 18 027 | 4 948 | 9 659 | 1 580 | 795 | 1 231 | 81 559 |
| November | 25 283 | 20 640 | 18 310 | 4 989 | 9 731 | 1 586 | 803 | 1 258 | 82 600 |
| December | 25 628 | 20 928 | 18 637 | 5 059 | 9 797 | 1 593 | 811 | 1 294 | 83 747 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
2007 | January | 25 915 | 21 239 | 18 939 | 5 131 | 9 848 | 1 589 | 818 | 1 330 | 84 809 |
| February | 26 140 | 21 532 | 19 186 | 5 182 | 9 891 | 1 584 | 826 | 1 364 | 85 705 |
| March | 26 304 | 21 734 | 19 322 | 5 200 | 9 930 | 1 586 | 830 | 1 385 | 86 291 |
| April | 26 403 | 21 845 | 19 355 | 5 181 | 9 975 | 1 591 | 829 | 1 394 | 86 573 |
| May | 26 435 | 21 905 | 19 315 | 5 136 | 10 040 | 1 595 | 825 | 1 395 | 86 646 |
| June | 26 446 | 22 005 | 19 240 | 5 091 | 10 132 | 1 596 | 821 | 1 393 | 86 724 |
| July | 26 466 | 22 176 | 19 164 | 5 060 | 10 234 | 1 603 | 817 | 1 393 | 86 913 |
| August | 26 482 | 22 361 | 19 096 | 5 039 | 10 333 | 1 610 | 815 | 1 396 | 87 132 |
| September | 26 448 | 22 555 | 19 027 | 5 017 | 10 425 | 1 624 | 813 | 1 400 | 87 309 |
|
(a) Seasonally adjusted numbers of new motor vehicle sales in Tasmania, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory should be used with caution. For further information, see paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes. |